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Ashok Kotwal
On demonetisation
Posted on: 23 Dec 2016
On the evening of 8 November, the Prime Minister announced on national television that Rs. ... read on »
A symposium on Piketty: Introduction
Posted on: 15 Jun 2015
Thomas Piketty’s book on ´Capital in the Twenty First Century’ has made waves. The f ... read on »
Emerging challenges: Economic and social
Posted on: 06 Aug 2014
To mark the second anniversary of I4I in July 2014, we invited two eminent scholars – Abhi ... read on »

Tag: GDP

On India’s latest GDP numbers
Abhijit Banerjee
Posted on: 15 Mar 2017
Tags:   GDP


India’s latest GDP data shows that the economy grew at 7% in the previous quarter, despite demonetisation. In this article, Abhijit Banerjee discusses why the new numbers are likely to be an overestimation.
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GDP conundrum: A synoptic view
R. Nagaraj
Posted on: 20 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data


R Nagaraj, Professor of Economics at IGIDR, summarises the key points of controversy around the methodology and implications of the new GDP series.

This is the last of a four-part series.

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GDP conundrum: Some areas of concern around growth overestimation in Indian manufacturing
Amey Sapre
Posted on: 18 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth


Based on the new GDP series, large upward revisions in manufacturing growth rates were made – from 1.1% to 6.2% in 2012-13, and from -0.7% to 5.29% in 2013 – 14 that were not reflective of the actual performance of the sector during the period. In this article, Amey Sapre, doctoral student in Economics at IIT Kanpur, analyses some of the methodological issues in measuring growth in the manufacturing sector.

This is the third of a four-part series.

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GDP conundrum: Is India booming?
Rajeswari Sengupta
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data


Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor at IGIDR, points out that the methodology used for the new GDP series seems to be underestimating the GDP deflator, which in turn is causing real growth to be overstated, perhaps by as much as 2 percentage points.

This is the second of a four-part series.

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GDP conundrum: What makes the changes in the new series so radical?
J. Dennis Rajakumar , S.L. Shetty
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data


Dennis Rajakumar and S.L. Shetty of the EPW Research Foundation, present a detailed explanation of the wide-ranging changes in the new 2011-12 National Accounts Statistics series.

This is the first of a four-part series.

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Introduction to e-Symposium: The GDP conundrum
Parikshit Ghosh
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data


Ever since India’s Central Statistical Organisation came out with the new GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year, controversy has surrounded it. The CSO claims that the new series is calculated based on a number of methodological changes that bring India closer to international practice. However, the resulting high growth figures do not seem to quite agree with several other indices that usually reflect the strength of the economy.

To examine the issue, I4I Editor Parikshit Ghosh is hosting an e-Symposium over the next few days. A panel of experts will explain, in detail, the exact changes in estimation methods and identify potential problem areas that could be a source of overestimation.

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What does China’s ‘new normal’ mean for India?
Sharmila Kantha
Posted on: 17 Jun 2016

China’s new normal – a growth rate of at least 6.5% - has been set as a target in its 13th Five Year Plan. In this article, Sharmila Kantha, Principal Consultant, Confederation of Indian Industry, contends that the potential implications of the Chinese deceleration for the Indian economy need to be analysed in detail.
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Does democracy cause growth?
Daron Acemoglu , Suresh Naidu , Pascual Restrepo , James Robinson
Posted on: 03 Jun 2016

Many analysts view democracy as a neutral or negative factor for growth. This column discusses new evidence showing that democracy has a robust and sizeable pro-growth effect. It finds that a country that switches from non-democracy to democracy achieves about 20% higher GDP per capita over the subsequent three decades.
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Can India beat this slowdown?
Jayan Jose Thomas
Posted on: 24 Feb 2016

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has cautioned the government against seeking to generate economic growth by increasing public spending and hence, adding to the fiscal deficit. In this article, Jayan Jose Thomas, Associate Professor of Economics at Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, puts forth the view that the only engine that can pull the Indian economy forward at the moment is government expenditure.
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Fiscal deficit and growth slowdown
Gurbachan Singh
Posted on: 17 Feb 2016

Ahead of the Union Budget, several policymakers and economists in India have advocated increasing public spending to spur economic growth. In this article, Gurbachan Singh argues that even if India is facing a slowdown, a larger fiscal deficit is not the solution – more so now that RBI and the government have adopted inflation targeting. The prospect of a fiscal crisis may be farfetched but India may be incurring costs differently.
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Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
Ajay Shah
Posted on: 04 Sep 2015
Topics:   Economic Growth


The high growth rates visible in the new GDP data suggest that the recession which began in the first quarter of 2012 has now ended. Based on analysis of data on firms, investment and Balance of Payments, this column argues that the new GDP data does not square with other data which indicates slow growth and a continuation of the 2012 recession.
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Charting a course for the Indian economy
Karthik Muralidharan , Arvind Subramanian
Posted on: 05 Aug 2015

Karthik Muralidharan (Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego) speaks with Arvind Subramanian (Chief Economic Adviser, Government of India) on a broad set of issues ranging from the uniqueness of the Indian development model, the political economy of reforms, reducing factor misallocation in the economy, enhancing State capacity, financing India´s infrastructure needs, to the implications of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, improving the design of social welfare programmes, and climate change.

This is the third in the series of I4I Conversations.

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India’s macroeconomic outlook: Is uncertainty the new paradigm?
Bornali Bhandari
Posted on: 26 Jul 2015
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP


The provisional growth estimate for India for 2014-15 is 7.3%, higher than 6.9% growth in 2013-14. In this article, Bornali Bhandari – a Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research – argues that the figures mask the volatile path that growth has taken in 2014-15. She discusses the key uncertainties faced by the Indian economy last year, and their implications for growth going forward.
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Clearing the fog on the new GDP numbers
Saugata Bhattacharya
Posted on: 24 Jun 2015
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data


The Central Statistics Office recently changed the way GDP is calculated in India, revising the growth estimate for 2013-14 from 4.7% to 6.9%. Many are confused and skeptical about the new numbers, partly owing to a perceived mismatch between the higher growth and underperformance of other economic indicators. In this article, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Axis Bank, contends that a credible economic rationale underlines the new methodology. He demonstrates that corporate data are consistent with the national accounts estimates, and this has a bearing on future growth expectations.
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Where is India’s growth story headed?
Ila Patnaik , Madhavi Pundit
Posted on: 25 May 2015

The global financial crisis and domestic policy paralysis led to a decline in firms’ investment activities and investors’ business confidence in India. Could this have affected the economy’s long-term growth? This column contends that institutional capacity for reform and the right policy action can render the negative investment shock temporary, and ensure that the trend growth of output remains strong.
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Will India really grow faster than China?
Chetan Ghate , Peter Robertson
Posted on: 23 Mar 2015
Topics:   Economic Growth


According to the IMF, India will overtake China to be the fastest growing economy this year. In this article, Chetan Ghate and Peter Robertson assess the validity of this claim. In their view, the challenge for India is to not only catch up with China, but to also catch up with itself. Strong democratic institutions and the right economic reforms can work in India’s favour.
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Why the World Bank’s International Comparison Program has limited use for India
Ranjan Ray
Posted on: 20 Feb 2015

Preliminary results from the World Bank’s International Comparison Program, which seeks to compare the economies of 199 countries across the globe, were released recently. In this article, Ranjan Ray, Professor of Economics, Monash University, highlights several features of the exercise that limits its usefulness for a diverse country such as India, and makes recommendations for the next round.
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Financing India’s infrastructure growth
Samik Metia
Posted on: 12 Jan 2015

Interest rates in the developed economies are still at very low levels, while investors are looking for high and stable returns for their money. This article outlines an innovative proposal for financing India’s infrastructure needs via government bonds targeted at foreign investors, with returns linked to the growth rates in the country.
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An economic roadmap for India
Iqbal Dhaliwal , Gita Gopinath
Posted on: 30 May 2014
Tags:   GDP


With a new government at the Centre, there is an expectation of a revival of growth of the Indian economy. This article contends that India can return to the path of sustainable growth by investing in capital, promoting growth of industry, improving environment for doing business, prioritising fiscal discipline, and improving education and healthcare.
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Understanding India’s unbalanced growth
Chetan Ghate , Peter Robertson
Posted on: 03 Feb 2014
Topics:   Economic Growth


Growing regional disparities in India are a cause for concern. But little is known about the relative importance of possible reasons for the varied growth experiences across the country. This column explores growth imbalances among Indian districts. Proximity to cities, infrastructure, degree of urbanisation and state government policies are found to be key determinants.
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How can Indians be happier?
Nirvikar Singh
Posted on: 30 Oct 2013
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP


The recently released World Happiness Report 2013 seeks to go beyond Gross Domestic Product and the Human Development Index to understand what really matters to people for their well-being. It is found that perceived social support and the effectiveness and honesty of the government are strongly associated with citizens’ life evaluations in India.
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Long term recovery of the Indian economy depends on reforms
Sarah Chan
Posted on: 24 Apr 2013

The Indian economy has been facing challenges in the form of sluggish growth, high inflation, and rising fiscal and current account deficits. This column highlights trends in the economic conditions, and outlines policy actions and reforms needed to put the economy back on track.
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Why is poverty declining so slowly in India?
Arka Roy Chaudhuri , Ashok Kotwal
Posted on: 25 Feb 2013

Despite two decades of fast growth of per capita GDP, India has experienced a very slow decline in poverty. The column suggests that this disconnect between GDP growth and poverty decline can largely be attributed to the positive feedback emanating from a skill biased growth pattern.
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