:: Ideas for India ::

Ashok Kotwal

A symposium on Piketty: Introduction
Posted on: 15 Jun 2015

First, I would like to direct readers to a piece by Robert Solow – a Nobel Laureate a ... read on »

Emerging challenges: Economic and social
Posted on: 06 Aug 2014

The recent parliamentary election may well turn out to be a significant event in Indi ... read on »

The challenge of fulfilling aspirations
Posted on: 15 Jul 2014

The recent parliamentary election may turn out to be a watershed moment in Indian his ... read on »

Latest

A monetary economics view of the demonetisation
Ajay Shah
Posted on: 21 Nov 2016

Topics: Finance , Macroeconomic Policy

Tags: monetary policy , fiscal policy

The demonetised Rs. 500 and 1,000 notes were 86% of the total volume of cash in India. In this article, Ajay Shah, Professor at NIPFP, argues that if a significant scale of firm failure were to come about, it would convert a temporary shock into a deeper and more long-term recession.
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GDP conundrum: A synoptic view
R. Nagaraj
Posted on: 20 Nov 2016

Topics: Economic Thought

Tags: GDP , data

R Nagaraj, Professor of Economics at IGIDR, summarises the key points of controversy around the methodology and implications of the new GDP series.

This is the last of a four-part series.
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Going cashless but thinking cash?
Bappaditya Mukhopadhyay
Posted on: 20 Nov 2016

Topics: Finance , Macroeconomic Policy

Tags: monetary policy , fiscal policy

In this article, Bappaditya Mukhopadhyay, Professor of Economics and Finance at the Great Lakes Institute of Management, contends that switching from a predominantly cash-based to cashless economy needs a positive, exogenous shock and the recent currency ban could be the perfect opportunity for that. To give India’s cashless economy the push it needs, the government could allow mobile and other digital payment platforms to accept deposits in demonetised notes.
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Picking up the pieces
Pronab Sen
Posted on: 18 Nov 2016

Topics: Finance , Macroeconomic Policy

Tags: monetary policy , fiscal policy

In an earlier article , Pronab Sen, Country Director, IGC India Central, examined some of the economic consequences of the recent demonetisation of Rs. 1,000 and 500 notes in India, and concluded that the potential damage could be substantial, both in terms of growth and equity.

In this article, focussing on solutions, he contends that the government now needs to realise that credit for production purposes is at least as, if not more, important than providing liquidity for consumption.
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GDP conundrum: Some areas of concern around growth overestimation in Indian manufacturing
Amey Sapre
Posted on: 18 Nov 2016

Topics: Economic Growth

Tags: GDP , data , manufacturing

Based on the new GDP series, large upward revisions in manufacturing growth rates were made – from 1.1% to 6.2% in 2012-13, and from -0.7% to 5.29% in 2013 – 14 that were not reflective of the actual performance of the sector during the period. In this article, Amey Sapre, doctoral student in Economics at IIT Kanpur, analyses some of the methodological issues in measuring growth in the manufacturing sector.

This is the third of a four-part series.
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Policymaking in the ‘grey zone’?
Prerna Mukharya
Posted on: 17 Nov 2016

Topics: Finance , Macroeconomic Policy , Poverty & Inequality

Tags: monetary policy , fiscal policy , financial inclusion , rural India

Prerna Mukharya, Founder of Outline India – a social enterprise that focuses on data collection, impact assessments and evaluation studies, predominantly working with rural populations in remote areas – discusses the impact of the currency ban on their work.
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GDP conundrum: Is India booming?
Rajeswari Sengupta
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016

Topics: Economic Growth

Tags: GDP , data

Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor at IGIDR, points out that the methodology used for the new GDP series seems to be underestimating the GDP deflator, which in turn is causing real growth to be overstated, perhaps by as much as 2 percentage points.

This is the second of a four-part series.
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GDP conundrum: What makes the changes in the new series so radical?
J. Dennis Rajakumar , S.L. Shetty
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016

Topics: Economic Growth

Tags: GDP , data

Dennis Rajakumar and S.L. Shetty of the EPW Research Foundation, present a detailed explanation of the wide-ranging changes in the new 2011-12 National Accounts Statistics series.

This is the first of a four-part series.
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Introduction to e-Symposium: The GDP conundrum
Parikshit Ghosh
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016

Topics: Economic Growth

Tags: GDP , data

Ever since India’s Central Statistical Organisation came out with the new GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year, controversy has surrounded it. The CSO claims that the new series is calculated based on a number of methodological changes that bring India closer to international practice. However, the resulting high growth figures do not seem to quite agree with several other indices that usually reflect the strength of the economy.

To examine the issue, I4I Editor Parikshit Ghosh is hosting an e-Symposium over the next few days. A panel of experts will explain, in detail, the exact changes in estimation methods and identify potential problem areas that could be a source of overestimation.
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A macro view of India’s currency ban
Rajeswari Sengupta
Posted on: 15 Nov 2016

Topics: Finance , Macroeconomic Policy

Tags: monetary policy , fiscal policy

The recent ban on high-value currency notes has taken the country by storm. While much is being written about the pros and cons of this announcement in terms of the effect on black money, logistical costs, and the immediate inconvenience faced by the public, there is little or no discourse on the macroeconomic implications. In this article, Rajeswari Sengupta, Assistant Professor of Economics at IGIDR, discusses the impact of this move on money supply, output and prices, in the short- and medium-term.
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