Economic Growth
 
India’s GDP: Deflating the right way
Jyoti Sharma
Posted on: 12 Oct 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

An unending debate on the GDP growth numbers brought out by the Central Statistics Office has been doing the rounds. In light of the mismatch between recent trends in the growth rate and an array of high-frequency macroeconomic growth indicators, this column discusses the shortcomings of the deflation methodology used to calculate growth rates.
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What does the new IIP series tell us about the state of manufacturing in India?
Radhika Pandey , Amey Sapre , Pramod Sinha
Posted on: 02 Aug 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth

In May 2017, the Central Statistics Office released the new series of the Index of Industrial Production with 2011-12 as the base year, after a comprehensive revision of computation methods. The series almost entirely reverses the performance picture of Indian manufacturing, showing sharp upward revisions in the growth of activity. This column finds that the new index is likely to show inflated growth during times of falling inflation. Thus, deciphering the actual change in production continues to be difficult.
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Income inequality in a globalising world
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa , Laurence Roope , Finn Tarp
Posted on: 17 Feb 2017

Since the turn of the century, income inequality has risen to be among the most prominent policy issues of our time. This column looks at inequality trends in recent decades. While relative global inequality has fallen, insufficient economic convergence, together with substantial growth in per capita incomes, has resulted in increased absolute inequality since the mid-1970s. The inclusivity aspect of growth is now more imperative than ever.
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Introduction to e-Symposium: The GDP conundrum
Parikshit Ghosh
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

Ever since India’s Central Statistical Organisation came out with the new GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year, controversy has surrounded it. The CSO claims that the new series is calculated based on a number of methodological changes that bring India closer to international practice. However, the resulting high growth figures do not seem to quite agree with several other indices that usually reflect the strength of the economy.

To examine the issue, I4I Editor Parikshit Ghosh is hosting an e-Symposium over the next few days. A panel of experts will explain, in detail, the exact changes in estimation methods and identify potential problem areas that could be a source of overestimation.

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Justice delayed is development denied: The effect of slow courts on economic outcomes in India
Amrit Amirapu
Posted on: 22 Aug 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth

India´s formal judicial system is infamously slow, even for a developing country. What is less well established is whether this matters to economic outcomes. This column uses state-level variation in the speed of courts coupled with the fact that certain industries rely on contract enforcement more than others: to show that slow courts in India have a substantial negative impact on output and employment growth in the formal manufacturing sector.
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Painful spillovers from slowing BRICS growth
Raju Huidrom , Ayhan Kose , Franziska Ohnsorge
Posted on: 08 Jun 2016
Tags:   BRICS

A synchronous growth slowdown has hit emerging markets, especially the BRICS, since 2010, with the potential for significant adverse spillovers to the rest of the world. This column estimates that a 1 percentage point decline in BRICS growth could reduce global growth by 0.4 percentage points, and growth in other emerging markets by 0.8 percentage points, over the following two years.
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Does democracy cause growth?
Daron Acemoglu , Suresh Naidu , Pascual Restrepo , James Robinson
Posted on: 03 Jun 2016

Many analysts view democracy as a neutral or negative factor for growth. This column discusses new evidence showing that democracy has a robust and sizeable pro-growth effect. It finds that a country that switches from non-democracy to democracy achieves about 20% higher GDP per capita over the subsequent three decades.
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Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
Ajay Shah
Posted on: 04 Sep 2015
Topics:   Economic Growth

The high growth rates visible in the new GDP data suggest that the recession which began in the first quarter of 2012 has now ended. Based on analysis of data on firms, investment and Balance of Payments, this column argues that the new GDP data does not square with other data which indicates slow growth and a continuation of the 2012 recession.
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Creating a services value chain between India and Thailand
Tanu M. Goyal , Arpita Mukherjee
Posted on: 08 Jul 2015

In the past two decades, India has signed several bilateral and regional comprehensive free trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries, which are likely to enhance services trade, investment and cooperation in the region. This column explores the prospects for creation of a services value chain between India and Thailand. It contends that integrating services may facilitate growth in Indian manufacturing by supporting production networks.
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Land acquisition, industrialisation, and displaced households
Saumik Paul , Vengadeshvaran J. Sarma
Posted on: 01 Jul 2015

Does industrialisation on acquired land benefit those displaced? Evaluating the long-term livelihood effects of the first Special Economic Zone in the state of West Bengal, this column finds that the impact on displaced households is mixed. While they are more likely to be employed in the industrial zone, their returns to education are lower than that of other households.
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