Economic Growth
 
‘Nowcasting’ the Indian economy: A new approach to know the now-GDP
Soumya Bhadury , Sanjib Pohit
Posted on: 12 Jan 2018
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

This column describes NCAER’s new ‘nowcasting’ model, which seeks to predict India’s GDP numbers at frequent intervals − typically on a monthly or quarterly basis − by exploiting the incremental information in published data on economic indicators.
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Does mandatory CSR expenditure affect firm value? Evidence from Indian firms
Praveen Bhagawan M , Jyoti Prasad Mukhopadhyay
Posted on: 04 Jan 2018
Topics:   Economic Growth

Section 135 of the Companies Act, 2013 mandates all Indian firms above certain size or profit threshold to spend at least 2% of net profit earned in preceding three years on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) from 2014-15 onwards. The existing literature is divided on whether CSR spending helps improve firm performance. Analysing firm-level data from India for 2006-2016, this column finds that CSR spending has a significant positive impact on firm value.
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Is small beautiful? A critical evaluation of MSME policy and performance in India
Shromona Ganguly
Posted on: 12 Dec 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth , Jobs

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) have significance in a labour-abundant country like India, and various policies are in place to promote the sector. Analysing MSME data from various sources, this column shows that the structure of manufacturing MSMEs has changed significantly in the last decade: the share of capital-intensive industries in output has increased; labour productivity remains very low with possible replacement of labour with capital.
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Structural transformation and spillovers from ‘Industrial Areas’
David Blakeslee , Ritam Chaurey , Ram Fishman , Samreen Malik
Posted on: 07 Dec 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth , Jobs

A defining feature of economic development is the reallocation of labour from subsistence agriculture to manufacturing. To shed light on this process, this column analyses Karnataka’s Industrial Areas (IAs) programme that facilitated the establishment of industrial firms in rural areas. It finds that IAs caused a large increase in the number of firms and employment with substantial spillovers to neighbouring villages, and triggered a classic ‘structural transformation’ of the economy.
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Food processing industries: Lessons from Bihar
Barna Ganguli , Debdatta Saha
Posted on: 29 Nov 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth

For an industrially backward state like Bihar, placing food processing as the lead sector for industrial development is a natural choice from the perspective of resource advantage and interlinked sectoral development. The state government has provided targeted front-loaded capital subsidies for new units in the sector. This column reports on a primary survey of industries that assesses the strengths and drawbacks of the present policy environment and institutions.
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Studying revisions in Indian GDP data
Amey Sapre , Rajeswari Sengupta
Posted on: 28 Nov 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

The GDP numbers for a given year undergo a sequence of revisions based on data availability. The periodic revisions are meant to reveal the true picture of the economy, and affect macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking. Large, frequent, and uncertain data revisions can raise questions of data credibility and lead to imprecise inputs for policymaking. In this article, Sapre and Sengupta highlight several issues in the revisions in India's GDP series.
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India’s GDP: Deflating the right way
Jyoti Sharma
Posted on: 12 Oct 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

An unending debate on the GDP growth numbers brought out by the Central Statistics Office has been doing the rounds. In light of the mismatch between recent trends in the growth rate and an array of high-frequency macroeconomic growth indicators, this column discusses the shortcomings of the deflation methodology used to calculate growth rates.
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What does the new IIP series tell us about the state of manufacturing in India?
Radhika Pandey , Amey Sapre , Pramod Sinha
Posted on: 02 Aug 2017
Topics:   Economic Growth

In May 2017, the Central Statistics Office released the new series of the Index of Industrial Production with 2011-12 as the base year, after a comprehensive revision of computation methods. The series almost entirely reverses the performance picture of Indian manufacturing, showing sharp upward revisions in the growth of activity. This column finds that the new index is likely to show inflated growth during times of falling inflation. Thus, deciphering the actual change in production continues to be difficult.
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Income inequality in a globalising world
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa , Laurence Roope , Finn Tarp
Posted on: 17 Feb 2017

Since the turn of the century, income inequality has risen to be among the most prominent policy issues of our time. This column looks at inequality trends in recent decades. While relative global inequality has fallen, insufficient economic convergence, together with substantial growth in per capita incomes, has resulted in increased absolute inequality since the mid-1970s. The inclusivity aspect of growth is now more imperative than ever.
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Introduction to e-Symposium: The GDP conundrum
Parikshit Ghosh
Posted on: 16 Nov 2016
Topics:   Economic Growth
Tags:   GDP , data

Ever since India’s Central Statistical Organisation came out with the new GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year, controversy has surrounded it. The CSO claims that the new series is calculated based on a number of methodological changes that bring India closer to international practice. However, the resulting high growth figures do not seem to quite agree with several other indices that usually reflect the strength of the economy.

To examine the issue, I4I Editor Parikshit Ghosh is hosting an e-Symposium over the next few days. A panel of experts will explain, in detail, the exact changes in estimation methods and identify potential problem areas that could be a source of overestimation.

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