Macroeconomic Policy
 
What did demonetisation do to domestic agricultural markets?
Nidhi Aggarwal , Sudha Narayanan
Posted on: 10 Nov 2017
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When the note ban was announced a year ago, many feared that it would hit agriculture and informal sectors the hardest given the widespread use of cash for transacting in these sectors. Analysing data from 2,953 mandis across India for 35 major agricultural commodities for the period 2011-2017, this column finds that there are lingering impacts of demonetisation on farmers and adverse distributional consequences overall.
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Should emerging markets worry about US monetary policy announcements?
Poonam Gupta , Oliver Masetti , David Rosenblatt
Posted on: 03 Aug 2017

Emerging economies are routinely affected by monetary policy announcements in the US. This column finds that US monetary policy surprises have a significant impact on emerging economies’ exchange rates, equity prices, and bond yields. The impact is larger for surprise tightening of policy than for surprise easing, and disproportionately larger for large surprises. The spillover effects of policy announcements of other advanced economies are much weaker than those of the US.
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The economic and political consequences of India’s demonetisation
Abhijit Banerjee , Namrata Kala
Posted on: 26 Jul 2017

The ruling party at the centre won the Uttar Pradesh state election despite its demonetisation policy having some negative economic impacts on the Indian economy. By combining primary data from surveys of wholesale and retail traders, with secondary data on wholesale markets, this column seeks to analyse why this was so.
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Budget subsidies of the central government and 14 major Indian states: 1987-88 and 2011-12
Sudipto Mundle , Satadru Sikdar
Posted on: 14 Mar 2017

This column presents estimates of the flow of subsidies through the budgets of the central government and 14 major Indian states in 1987-88 and 2011-12. The estimates show that the overall level of subsidies relative to GDP has declined, as has the share of non-merit subsidies. This suggests some improvement in efficiency in this aspect of public expenditure.
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Are grain procurement shocks inflationary?
Chetan Ghate , Sargam Gupta , Debdulal Mallick
Posted on: 17 Oct 2016

Central banks in emerging markets grapple with understanding the inflationary impact of grain procurement shocks because the precise link between the agriculture sector and the rest of the economy may not be well understood. This column presents a framework to understand how the government’s grain procurement policy in India can be inflationary, and what the appropriate monetary policy response should be.
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Union Budget 2016: Will it support India’s economic transformation?
Nirvikar Singh
Posted on: 08 Mar 2016

In this year’s Budget speech, the Finance Minister articulated the government’s agenda to ‘Transform India’ through a set of economic reforms framed in terms of ‘nine pillars’ - agriculture, rural development, health, education and skilling, infrastructure, financial sector, governance, fiscal discipline, and tax reform. In this article, Nirvikar Singh, Professor of Economics at the University of California Santa Cruz, summarises the highlights of the nine pillars and discusses whether or to what extent this Budget will support India’s economic transformation.
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Household savings and India’s current account deficit
Nikhil Gupta
Posted on: 25 Sep 2015

India’s current account deficit widened consistently in the post-crisis period between 2008-09 and 2012-13. This column finds that while the public sector was the key driver of this trend in the first two years, the increased consumption/investment by households was responsible for the high deficit in the later period. It recommends that policymakers should now incentivise household savings rather than consumption/investments, which implies limited scope for further interest rate cuts.
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How interest rates affect financial decisions of Indian households
Nikhil Gupta
Posted on: 17 Jul 2015

RBI has cut interest rates three times this year so far. While rate cuts are welcomed by the Indian corporate sector, their impact on households is less discussed. This column analyses the relationship between deposit rates and financial decisions of households. It finds that lower rates reduce net financial savings of households, which in turn reduces the resource pool available to the corporate sector.
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Where is India’s growth story headed?
Ila Patnaik , Madhavi Pundit
Posted on: 25 May 2015

The global financial crisis and domestic policy paralysis led to a decline in firms’ investment activities and investors’ business confidence in India. Could this have affected the economy’s long-term growth? This column contends that institutional capacity for reform and the right policy action can render the negative investment shock temporary, and ensure that the trend growth of output remains strong.
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Responding to external shocks
Ashima Goyal
Posted on: 30 Apr 2015

Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the Indian economy was exposed to various shocks. While the major source of shocks was external, the effects were magnified by certain lapses in domestic policy. This column discusses what policies worked and what did not work to reduce excessive rupee volatility, and how the lessons were applied to prepare for any future shocks.
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